加拿大央行会议对USDCAD几乎没有影响。 价格和政策将保持不变，并且不会举行新闻发布会。这也是新任行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆（Tiff Macklem）任职期间的第一次会议。
USDCAD：加拿大央行会议和国内劳工调查数据将被其他地方的事件所掩盖。 欧洲央行决议，美国就业报告，石油价格以及特朗普/中国的紧张关系将推动美元兑主要货币的走势，而美元兑加元也将顺其自然。 WTI石油正在试图果断突破35.00美元/桶，突破後可能大幅上涨，填补3月8日的缺口41.10美元。 如果这样的话，USDCAD的上升将被限制在1.4050区域。
FX Weekly(1-5 June ) by Michael O’Neill
June 1, 2020
Snapshot-The week ahead
·US employment report expected to show loss of 10 million jobs
·Bank of Canada policy will remain unchanged
·RBA may offer an upbeat economic outlook
·ECB policy meeting may increase monetary stimulus
·US/China tensions may be an election strategy
The major FX currencies are expected to get off to a slow start, and then stay inside last week's ranges due to event risk from central bank meetings, and ahead of the US employment report.
There is likely to be an undercurrent of risk aversion sentiment to keep traders nervous following President Trump's latest tirade against China. Late Friday afternoon, President Trump used Beijing's attempt to quell unrest in Hong Kong, as an excuse to begin the process of stripping HK of its "special trade status." He also said that the US would put sanctions on some PRC and HK officials. China-bashing was a central theme in Trump's 2016 election campaign, and it is evident that it remains a core platform for the 2020 campaign.
Market reaction to Trump's speech was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ recovered all their pre-speech losses, US Treasury yields dipped, gold prices firmed, as did oil prices.
FX traders will be cautious ahead of Friday's US employment report for May. The forecast is for a loss of 10 million jobs, which, although terrible, is still a significant improvement over April's 20.5 million loss.
If the results are better than expected, traders will conclude the US economic rebound from COVID-19 restrictions is more robust than previously thought, leading to new demand for the so-called risk-assets. (Commodity currencies, oil, equities etc). The reaction will be tempered by the level of unemployment, especially if it higher than the 19.6% forecast.
If the results are weaker than expected, the impact on FX markets may be understated, as weak data is expected due to lockdown measures.
AUDUSD may get a boost following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on Tuesday, if the RBA provides a positive economic outlook. They may be encouraged by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. However, political tensions with China and the imposition of tariffs on some Australian exports may weigh on the tone.
The Bank of Canada meeting will have little impact on USDCAD. Rates and policy will be unchanged, and there will not be a press conference. It is also the first meeting of new Governor Tiff Macklem' s tenure.
EURUSD outlook: The ECB policy meeting will be closely watched. Policymakers are expected to increase the size of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). Economists also expect that ECB forecasts will be downgraded, which could give EURUSD a negative bias. However, EURUSD will continue to be supported by the European Union (EU) proposal for an €825 billion COVID-19 Relief Fund.
The intraday EURUSD technicals are bullish above 1.1075. Traders are looking for a break of 1.1150 to lead to 1.1250. A move below 1.1060 suggests a retest of 1.0950.
Chart: EURUSD 30 minute
Source: Saxo Bank
USDCAD: The Bank of Canada meeting and the domestic Labour Survey data will be overshadowed by events elsewhere. The ECB decision, US employment report, oil prices, and Trump/China tensions will drive US dollar direction against the majors and USDCAD will just go along for the ride. WTI oil is attempting a decisive break above $35.00/barrel which could lead to a sharp spike to fill the March 8 gap at $41.10. If so, the USDCAD rise will be capped in the 1.4050 area.
The short term USDCAD technicals are bearish while prices are below 1.4005, There is also resistance in the 1.3850-70 area.
The 2020 uptrend from January is intact while prices are above 1.3710. A break below 1.3710 suggests losses to 1.3435 and then 1.3200.
Chart: USDCAD daily
Source: Saxo Bank
Trade of the Week: EURCNH may be ripe for a correction lower.
EURCNH peaked at 7.9773 on Thursday. The move was fueled by caution ahead of Trump's press, and due to some broad month-end US dollar selling pressures. The PBoC, like the Bank of Japan, and Swiss National Bank, are active in currencies, to smooth price fluctuations. The PBoC fixed USDCNY lower on Friday, which suggests they think prices are too high. EURUSD is unlikely to break higher ahead of the ECB meeting, leaving it vulnerable to selling pressures as positions get adjusted. The Daily RSI's are overbought.
Strategy: Sell EURCNH at 7.9350
Stop Loss 7.9652
Take profit 7.8550
Duration 4 days
Chart USDCNH with Bollinger bands and RSI
Source: Saxo Bank
This article, written by Michael O’Neill, is exclusive for FX168. Copyright reserved. Reprint or reproduction, partially or in full is strictly prohibted.